Economy

70 years of the yield curve

Every month's US Treasury yield curve since 1953 as one colour field — time across, maturity up, colour is the interest rate. Press play: the bright spine is that month's actual curve, and it flips upside down before every recession. The strip below is the 10-year minus 3-month spread; when it dips rust, short money pays more than long, and a recession band has followed nearly every time. Tap or hover any month.

—

Data & source

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — monthly constant-maturity Treasury yields (TB3MS, GS1–GS30) and the NBER recession indicator (USREC) · public domain · fetched —. Coverage begins 1953-04 with the 10-year series; 2-year yields exist from 1976, 30-year from 1977 with a 2002–06 gap — each ridge is drawn only through the maturities its month actually had. "Inverted" here means the 10-year yield sits below the 3-month bill. Displayed: the 3m–10y stretch, present for the whole 73 years (20/30-year yields, which start in 1977, are in the data file). Each month's column interpolates color between the tenors that month actually had; pre-1976 columns have no 2-year point and are shown as the smooth in-between that they are.